State of the build-out
Where the build-out stands
The constraint climbs the stack on a schedule the market keeps underpricing. Here is where each layer sits right now, what is binding, and what to watch next.
- Binding
Memory
HBM and high-density NAND
As of May 21, 2026. HBM remains sold out through the year, with HBM4 qualification pulling demand forward.
- Binding
Advanced Packaging & Test
CoWoS capacity and burn-in
As of May 21, 2026. CoWoS bookings still front-run revenue; book-to-bill above 3x at the leaders.
- Watch
Optical Interconnect
Co-packaged optics and 800G transceivers
As of May 21, 2026. 800G transceiver lead times stretching as clusters scale. The next layer to tighten.
- Watch
Neocloud
GPU clusters and deployment
As of May 21, 2026. Compute is contracted before the racks land. Capacity sold ahead of delivery.
- Binding
Power & Cooling
Grid interconnect and thermals
As of May 21, 2026. Site selection is driven by available megawatts. Grid interconnect is the ceiling.
- Watch
Defense Autonomy
The kinetic adjacency to the build-out
As of May 21, 2026. Procurement cycles are turning toward autonomy. Early innings.